Who Will Be the Next Pope?

A Survey of the Papabile, and a Prediction

The cardinal electors gathering for the papal conclave certainly have some sense of what they are looking for in a new pope, and I’ve offered my thoughts on what those qualities might be. But as I also noted, it’s nearly impossible to find someone who checks all the boxes; perhaps our expectations for the papacy have become unrealistic. The best the cardinals can do is select someone who has what they consider the essential qualities but also a talent for surrounding themselves with others who possess the strengths they lack.

So, who might that be? Who among the papabile do I think is most likely to be elected? Before proceeding, I want to reiterate something I said before, that my opinions here are put forward in a spirit of conversation. I have no special insight into the minds of the cardinals or what unpredictable direction the cardinals’ voting might take. I will gladly admit my mistakes once the white smoke appears!

That being said, let’s take a look at some of the leading papabile…

The Italians

Three of the most frequently mentioned papabile come from Italy. In my earlier article I argued that I think Europe has been permanently de-centered (although certainly not sidelined) in the affairs of the Church, diminishing the chances of a European cardinal being elected, but all three of these Italian cardinals have the international experience that could garner them widespread support among the cardinal electors. That’s especially true of Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the Vatican Secretary of State, who has served as a Vatican diplomat since the 1980s and successfully negotiated important agreements on behalf of the Vatican in Mexico, Venezuela, and Vietnam. Appointed Secretary of State by Pope Francis in 2013, Parolin also negotiated the controversial agreement with China on the appointment of bishops in that country. Also in Parolin’s favor is that he would likely offer continuity with Francis’s initiatives while providing a more managerial leadership style. Both Vatican journalists and betting markets have considered Parolin a leading contender, if not the leading contender, at the conclave.

Even so, I think there are several obstacles for Parolin. For one, he is said to lack charisma, which the cardinals may end up deciding is a fatal flaw. Similarly, although the next pope will need diplomatic skills, he will be able to rely on his own diplomats for advice, and so I think Parolin’s experience is less of a benefit than others have supposed. There are also questions about his leadership of the Secretariat of State, particularly regarding the financial scandal involving Cardinal Giovanni Angelo Becciu that occurred under Parolin’s watch. Finally, Cardinal Stella, the Italian cardinal who recently criticized Pope Francis for including lay people in Vatican leadership, is also a public backer of Parolin, and Stella’s comments may have unintentionally hurt Parolin’s chances by raising questions about how faithfully he would carry out Francis’s legacy. Recent reporting suggests that the cardinal electors are taking these weaknesses to heart and some who might have supported Parolin are looking elsewhere, although he will likely still get a significant number of votes the first time around.

The second Italian papabile is Cardinal Matteo Zuppi, the Archbishop of Bologna and President of the Italian Episcopal Conference. Vatican journalist John Allen, in the article just cited, considers Zuppi to be the cardinal Pope Francis had come closest to signaling was his choice as successor; I think that may be overstated, although clearly Francis intended to raise Zuppi’s profile. One of Zuppi’s strengths is that he has exercised a pastoral style quite similar to that of Jorge Bergoglio when he was Archbishop of Buenos Aires: seeking to accompany the people, particularly the poor and outcast; promoting outreach to the LGBTQ community; and abandoning his episcopal residence to live more humbly with a community of retired priests. As Archbishop of Bologna, Zuppi also supported Francis’s controversial teachings on permitting communion for the divorced and remarried and blessings for people in same-sex relationships. If the cardinals see continuity with Francis’s papacy as a high priority, then Zuppi may be a strong contender. Zuppi’s weakness may be his lack of an international profile, particularly when compared to Parolin, although even here, Francis appointed Zuppi as his personal diplomat attempting to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine, and earlier, as a member of the Community of Sant’Egidio, he was a chief negotiator of the peace deal ending a civil war in the African nation of Mozambique. On Tuesday, the cardinals meeting in a General Congregation issued an unusual statement to the public calling for peace in both Gaza and Ukraine, perhaps signaling that they are looking for a peacemaker pope, and Zuppi might fit the bill.

The third Italian papabile is Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa, the Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem, the pastoral leader of Latin Rite Catholics living in the Holy Land. Cardinal Pizzaballa has come to international attention as a result of his outspoken defense of Palestinian civilians in the midst of the war in Gaza, but also his offer to trade himself in exchange for the Israeli hostages kidnapped by Hamas. Pizzaballa was named patriarch in 2020, and before that he served as the Custodian of the Holy Land, responsible for overseeing the pilgrimage sites there, providing him with not only significant pastoral experience outside of Italy, but also making him a credible voice for peace on the global stage. On the other hand, Pizzaballa is young (60) and lacks some of the experience the cardinals might consider valuable,

The Asians

Pope Francis once said that “the future of the Church is in Asia,” and so it would be fitting if his successor was himself from Asia. Besides Parolin, the other cardinal who has been mentioned for years as a potential successor to Francis is from Asia: Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle from the Philippines. The longtime Archbishop of Manila, Tagle is now one of two Pro-Prefects of the Dicastery for Evangelization. He is considered a “pro-prefect” rather than a “prefect” because technically the pope himself is the prefect of this dicastery, a sign of its preeminence after the reorganization brought about by Praedicate Evangelium. Previously, the Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith held this preeminent place. Tagle is responsible for the section of the dicastery dealing with evangelization in regions where Christians are a minority (his counterpart at the dicastery, Salvatore Fisichella, leads the section responsible for evangelization in Christian, or post-Christian, societies, what John Paul II called “the New Evangelization”). For those who think the next pope should have evangelizing zeal, then Tagle would be a good candidate. He is also perceived to be charismatic.

On the other hand, Pope Francis appointed Tagle to head Caritas Internationalis, the Vatican-based network of charitable organizations, but in 2022 Tagle and the entire leadership of Caritas Internationalis were removed after an investigation into the leadership practices of the organization. Tagle’s role in those practices is unclear. Also, earlier this year the organization Bishop Accountability issued a report claiming that, over a period of decades, the bishops in the Philippines had created a culture of impunity where priest sexual abusers were rarely investigated and disciplined. Although Tagle was not directly implicated in the report, the period covered by the report includes his time as Archbishop of Manila and therefore may call into question his commitment to combatting sexual abuse. This weekend, the Filipino bishops’ conference issued a statement defending Tagle’s record on sexual abuse, but the very fact that the issue is being discussed may hinder Tagle’s chances of being elected.

Cardinal Lazarus You Heung-sik, formerly the bishop of Daejeon in South Korea and since 2021 the Prefect for the Dicastery of the Clergy, may end up taking Tagle’s place as the leading Asian contender for the papacy. His experience at the Dicastery of the Clergy could give him the background needed to promote a more synodal style of pastoral leadership throughout the Church. Cardinal Tarcisio Isao Kikuchi, the Archbishop of Tokyo and president of the Japanese bishops’ conference, who this year was also elected the secretary general of the Federation of Asian Bishops’ Conferences, could also be a credible choice from Asia. Kikuchi is clearly respected by other bishops and cardinals. Coincidentally, he was also tapped to take over Caritas Internationalis after Tagle’s departure. Other Asian papabile worth watching include Cardinal Charles Maung Bo, the Archbishop of Yangon, Myanmar, and Cardinal William Goh, the Archbishop of Singapore, although both may lack the desired international profile.

Gian Lorenzo Bernini, “Dove of the Holy Spirit,” St. Peter’s Basilica, ca. 1660 (Photo: Dnalor 01, CC BY-SA 3.0)

The Africans

At least since the 2005 conclave, when Cardinal Francis Arinze of Nigeria was considered a serious contender, there have been discussions of the significance of electing an African pope, signaling the Catholic Church’s shift toward the Global South. Historically, there have been three African popes—Victor I (2nd c.), Miltiades (4th c.), and Gelasius I (5th c.)—but still, the election of an African pope in the contemporary context would be a milestone.

The most often mentioned African cardinal listed among the papabile for this conclave is Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu, the Archbishop of Kinshasa in the Democratic Republic of Congo and the President of the Symposium of Episcopal Conferences of Africa and Madagascar (SECAM). Ambongo’s appeal is often expressed in terms of his being “progressive” on social justice issues like the global economy and the climate, and “conservative” on moral issues, particularly homosexuality. While true, there’s more to his appeal. Cardinal Ambongo was a participant in the Synod on Synodality and has embraced synodality as a guiding principle. Pope Francis appointed him to his Council of Cardinals in 2020, and reappointed him in 2023, signaling that Francis trusted Ambongo with implementing his vision of the Church.

At the same time, it was Ambongo, in his role as President of SECAM, who organized the African bishops’ opposition to implementing Fiducia Supplicans, the Vatican document permitting the blessing of individuals in same-sex relationships. I honestly don’t know if that will hurt or help his chances of being elected to succeed Francis. On the one hand, this was a remarkable instance of episcopal defiance of Vatican teaching. On the other hand, rather than instigating a fractious standoff, Cardinal Ambongo was able to negotiate a mutual understanding between SECAM and the Vatican on the implementation of Fiducia Supplicans, demonstrating tact and an ability to negotiate consensus. And Ambongo even managed to express SECAM’s reservations in terms of synodality, (probably correctly) arguing that Fiducia Supplicans had not been drafted in a sufficiently consultative manner.

Another African cardinal sometimes listed among the papabile is Cardinal Robert Sarah from the nation of Guinea. Cardinal Sarah is a favorite of traditionalists who have been critical of Pope Francis’s pontificate, particularly his restrictions on his use of the Traditional Latin Mass and his moral teachings on issues like homosexuality and communion for the divorced and remarried. For that very reason, however, I don’t think that Sarah has a realistic chance of being elected in the conclave. As I noted in the previous article, I think the majority of cardinals will want to elect someone who is supportive of Francis’s legacy.

Finally, a cardinal who has not received much attention from Vatican journalists but who I think could be a surprising unifying vote is Cardinal Peter Turkson from Ghana. Turkson has a great deal of pastoral experience, serving as the Archbishop of Cape Coast from 1992 to 2009. He was made a cardinal by Pope John Paul II in 2003, Pope Benedict XVI appointed him the President of the Pontifical Council for Justice and Peace in 2009, and in 2016 he became the first Prefect of the new Dicastery for Promoting Integral Human Development, stepping down in 2021. Turkson, therefore, brings a lot to the table. He could be seen as a figure bridging the John Paul II, Benedict XVI, and Francis pontificates. He has significant pastoral and curial experience and is well-known internationally. Turkson is also theologically astute; for example, he crafted the first draft of Pope Francis’s 2015 encyclical Laudato Si’. Although in the past Turkson had expressed support for laws in African nations criminalizing homosexuality (which Pope Francis criticized), more recently Turkson has expressed opposition to criminalization, perhaps suggesting an evolution of his views during Francis’s pontificate. Interestingly, the betting markets are generally positive on Turkson, with some listing him third behind Parolin and Tagle, while he has hardly been mentioned by Vatican journalists.

Cardinals from the Americas

Some lists of papabile have included American cardinals, particularly Cardinal Raymond Burke, the former Archbishop of St. Louis, and Cardinal Joe Tobin, the current Archbishop of Newark. Burke is unlikely to be elected for the same reason as Cardinal Sarah; a frequent critic of Pope Francis, he is unlikely to gain widespread support among a group of cardinal electors the majority of whom would like to maintain the main contours of Francis’s legacy. Even setting that aside, however, I think it is unlikely that the cardinals will elect an American pope. The cardinals likely want to avoid the perception of too close of a connection between the “spiritual power,” the Church, and the world’s leading temporal superpower, and more recently there is concern that the US episcopate is out of step with much of the Catholic world pastorally and theologically (for example, the lukewarm reception of the synodal process in parts of the US Church).

One possible exception to this might be Cardinal Robert Prevost; although born in the United States, he has spent much of his adult life in Peru. Born in Chicago, Prevost joined the Augustinian Order and was sent to Peru in 1985 as part of the Augustinians’ mission there. After holding various positions in the order in both Peru and the United States, in 1998 he was elected the provincial of the order’s province based in Chicago, and in 2001 he was elected to a term as the prior general of the entire Augustinian Order. Pope Francis named him the Bishop of Chiclayo, in Peru, in 2014, and in 2023 Francis appointed him the prefect of the Dicastery for Bishops, the important Vatican office that oversees the process of selecting new bishops around the world. Prevost also participated in the Synod on Synodality.

Several press outlets have reported that during the General Congregations, a growing number of cardinals may be looking to Prevost as a potential “unity candidate,” someone committed to the foundations of Francis’s legacy but with demonstrated managerial skills and a more cautious approach to leadership. But as JD Flynn reports at The Pillar, Prevost’s growing support may have plateaued as a result of concerns about how he handled abuse cases as both Augustinian provincial in Chicago and as bishop in Chiclayo.

It’s interesting that Prevost, an American who ministered for many years in Latin America, is being discussed as a possible contender while hardly any cardinals actually from Latin America are included in lists of papabile. Perhaps, after Francis’s pontificate, there is simply a desire to give another continent a turn? Odilo Scherer, the Archbishop of São Paulo, Brazil, was considered a contender in 2013, although Jorge Bergoglio seems to have drawn away Scherer’s support in the early voting. Carlos Aguiar Retes, the Archbishop of Mexico City, the former president of the Latin American bishops’ conference (CELAM), and one of the presiding officers at the Synod on Synodality, and Cardinal João Braz de Aviz, the former Archbishop of Brasilia, Brazil and former Prefect of the Dicastery for Institutes of Consecrated Life and Societies of Apostolic Life, could be plausible contenders but don’t seem to have gained much attention. Cardinal Leonardo Steiner, the Archbishop of Manaus, Brazil, and the first cardinal from the Amazon region, who made some outspoken comments on the Church in the Amazon at the Synod on Synodality, could also be considered, although he might be thought too progressive. But as of now, it does not look like the next pope will be another Latin American.

Unity Candidates

In addition to Prevost, a few other cardinals have been put forward as “unity candidates,” individuals who will likely carry on much of Francis’s legacy while also appealing to others who were somewhat critical of his leadership style or even some of his decisions. One cardinal who has been frequently included in lists of papabile but whom I haven’t mentioned yet is Cardinal Péter Erdő, the Archbishop of Esztergom–Budapest in Hungary. Francis’s critics and other conservatives seem to have mostly coalesced behind Erdő, although Erdő himself, unlike Burke or Sarah, rarely made comments that were perceived as directly opposing Francis’s initiatives. At the 2014 and 2015 Synods of Bishops focused on the topic of the family, however, Erdő did speak out in opposition to any provision for providing communion to Catholics who are divorced and remarried. In the past, he has also expressed some skepticism toward Francis’s welcoming attitude toward refugees in Europe. On the other hand, Erdő served as the president of the Council of Episcopal Conferences of Europe from 2006 to 2016, a body with representatives from a range of theological viewpoints. Erdő is probably the most conservative cardinal who has a plausible chance of being elected; if he can win the support of several African and American cardinals and a smattering of cardinals from other continents, he might build momentum. On the other hand, it seems unlikely to me that a cardinal whose election would be perceived as a decision to reverse course from Francis’s papacy will be able to gain the necessary two-thirds vote.

Other potential unity candidates might be considered more “middle-of-the-road.” For example, Cardinal Jean-Marc Aveline, the Archbishop of Marseille, France, was close to Francis and supportive of his vision, and he played an active role in promoting the Church’s ministry to migrants in the Mediterranean. He was also on the drafting committee that produced the Synod on Synodality’s final document. On the other hand, he has demonstrated a more dialogical attitude toward traditionalist movements and supporters of the Traditional Latin Mass. Aveline is attractive, but I don’t know if he has the global reputation of other candidates. Cardinal Cristóbal López Romero is a Spanish Salesian who serves as the Archbishop of Rabat in Morocco. He ministered in Paraguay and Bolivia, giving him an international profile, and in Morocco he has participated in Christian-Muslim dialogue. He’s an attractive choice, but as far as I can tell, he hasn’t gained much traction.

Cardinal Mario Grech, the former Bishop of Gozo on the island of Malta and the current General Secretary of the Synod of Bishops is an interesting possibility. As one of the main organizers of the Synod on Synodality, Grech would definitely represent a choice to push forward with the implementation of synodality. Through this role, he has also developed relationships with cardinals and bishops throughout the world. Grech might be considered too progressive by some cardinals, however.

In recent days, two other Vatican diplomats have been proposed as possible compromise candidates: the Italian Cardinal Fernando Filoni and the French Cardinal Dominique Mamberti. Both are considered to have the strengths of Parolin without the weaknesses. Both, however, have remained relatively silent about the key theological and pastoral issues facing the Church, and so many cardinals may hesitate to vote for individuals whose vision for the Church is largely unknown.

Who Will It Be?

The sheer number of plausible papabile going into this conclave, each with many strengths but many with clear weaknesses, as well, make the outcome especially unpredictable. Those who only days ago were considered the favorites—Parolin and Tagle—now seem to be losing support, with cardinal electors now dividing amongst several other papabile. Perhaps in the conclave itself they will quickly coalesce around a single alternative, as was the case in 2013 when the cardinal electors fairly quickly turned from favorites Angelo Scola and Marc Ouellet to Jorge Bergoglio. Or it may take several votes for the cardinals to settle on a single choice.

Given that uncertainty, it’s definitely risky to make predictions about who might be elected. I think it’s definitely good practice for journalists to avoid making predictions about the papal election and to stick strictly to the facts. I make no pretentions of being a journalist, however, so I will recklessly make a prediction, hopefully with the recognition that it is made with humility and mostly in a spirit of fun.

I suspect that after the first round, many of the cardinal electors will search for a unity candidate like I described above, rather than coalescing around Parolin or Tagle. Right now, my intuition is that Jean-Marc Aveline has the most plausible chance of fulfilling this role, despite Robert Prevost’s increased support in recent days. Some reporting suggests that Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu has gained support among African and Latin American cardinals. As my analysis above suggests, Cardinal Peter Turkson is a figure who could bridge the gap between supporters of Aveline and Ambongo, but as of now, I have not seen any reporting that he has gained support among the cardinal electors. Much would depend on the dynamics as the voting continues. So, as a final prediction, I will say that if he emerges as a plausible unifier, Turkson has a chance of being elected, but otherwise, if he gains early momentum, Aveline may be able to draw on a diverse enough group of cardinals to reach the necessary two-thirds. And we’ll leave it at that!

We’ll know the identity of the next pope soon enough, and I’ll be sure to have plenty of commentary after the election and as his pontificate unfolds here at Window Light.

Thoughts on my analysis, or predictions of your own? Share them in the comments!