Preparing for the Conclave
What Qualities Should the Next Pope Have?
The conclave which will elect a successor to Pope Francis begins tomorrow, which means that it’s quite probable that by the end of the week, we will have a new pope. The Catholic world, and a good part of the non-Catholic world as well, is waiting in anticipation to see who will be appointed to the Chair of St. Peter and the extent to which they will maintain the legacy of Pope Francis or chart a different course.
Yesterday I was reflecting on how I feel more of a sense of expectation and curiosity regarding this conclave than I did in 2013, when the cardinals elected Pope Francis. My whole life up to that point encompassed by the pontificates of John Paul II and Benedict XVI, perhaps I did not yet have an experiential sense of how the papacy can change, although of course at an intellectual level I knew quite well how much the papacy had changed just over the course of the 20th century, let alone over the Catholic Church’s long history. After Francis’s pontificate, it feels, at least to me, like there is something at stake with the papal election, although I think most of the cardinals put forward in the media as papabile, that is, those considered most likely to be elected, would make fine popes, more or less, so I don’t feel a sense of anxiety.
But even setting that personal experience aside, there is something mysterious and captivating about the conclave, from the grandeur of the Sistine Chapel, to the unpredictable process of voting, to the announcement of each vote’s outcome with black or white smoke. This past weekend, I provided an overview of the history of the conclave, and Cindy Wooden at Catholic News Service has a detailed walk through of how the conclave itself works. In today’s article, I want to outline what I think are the key factors that will guide the cardinals’ decision. In a follow up piece, I’ll go ahead and provide my own thoughts on who I think the most likely papabile are. I know Vatican journalists who have greater insight into the thinking of the cardinals and much better sources than me (I don’t have any, other than what I’ve read by those journalists!), but I’ll humbly offer my thoughts on the two questions as a theologian. And for the second question in particular, these are just my guesses at who might be elected pope, posed in good fun and meant to spur discussion. I’m sure I’ll probably have to humbly admit I was wrong next week!
What are the cardinals looking for in the next pope? I think the first thing to consider is that the global nature of the Church has irrevocably shaped the Vatican and the papacy. In other words, Europe has been to a great extent de-centered from the life of the Church. This doesn’t mean that a European won’t be elected pope, I just think it means that any European cardinal who is elected will likely need significant connections with the Church outside of Europe, and particularly in the Global South. These connections could come through experience in the Vatican’s diplomatic corps, for example, or through some kind of pastoral experience, such as leadership in a religious order. For this reason, I think some of the European cardinals sometimes listed as potential papabile who arguably lack these global connections, like Cardinal Anders Arborelius, the Bishop of Stockholm, Sweden, or Cardinal Willem Eijk, the Archbishop of Utrecht in the Netherlands, are unlikely to be elected. On the other hand, the election of Jorge Bergoglio, from Argentina, in 2013 seems to have broken a barrier, making the election of another pope from the Global South, particularly Asia or Africa (most lists of papabile surprisingly lack cardinals from Latin America), as well. All that being said, 52 of the 133 cardinal electors are from Europe, far more than any other continent, so the Europeans will still have a great deal of influence on the outcome.
As many have already noted, a key question faced by the next pope will be how to carry on the process of synodality inaugurated by Pope Francis. In one sense, then, the conclave is a referendum on synodality. On the other hand, if synodality is “a constitutive element of the Church,” as Pope Francis stated in 2015, then perhaps it makes as much sense to speak of the conclave as a referendum on synodality as it does to describe it as a referendum on catholicity! The question, rather, concerns the initiatives that emerged from the synodal process launched in 2021 intended to help the Church better reflect its synodality. A small number of the cardinal electors, most famously the American Raymond Burke and the German Ludwig Müller, were skeptical of the synodal process, but my sense is that most of the cardinal electors are supportive of the overall synodal process. As America’s Colleen Dulle points out in the article cited above, 61 of the 133 cardinal electors participated in the Synod on Synodality in 2023 and 2024, and most seem to have bought into what Francis was up to.
The more important question, then, is probably how synodality will be implemented in the next pontificate, and in particular how the recommendations found in the Synod’s final document will be fleshed out and put into practice. What are some of the concrete issues at stake? For one, Pope Francis updated the structure of the Roman Curia with the 2022 apostolic constitution Praedicate Evangelium, which, among other things, created the possibility of lay leadership in the Vatican dicasteries, or departments. There have also been efforts to make the day-to-day operations of the dicasteries more synodal by including more deliberative and consultative processes. How will these changes in curial operations be further implemented? Last week, Cardinal Beniamino Stella criticized Pope Francis for “bypassing the long-standing tradition of the church” by inviting lay leadership of the dicasteries, a shockingly open criticism of Francis, but a statement that shows that the shape of curial reform is up for grabs.
A second practical consideration related to synodality is the relationship between the papacy and individual bishops, as well as that between the papacy and national, regional, and even continental groupings of bishops. For example, even as the global synodal process was unfolding, the Church in Germany was also undertaking its own Synodal Way, a gathering of bishops, priests, and lay members that reached controversial conclusions regarding the leadership roles of women and the inclusion of LGBTQ persons in the life of the Church, among other things. The Vatican, however, clashed with the German Church over the creation of a Synodal Council which was intended to have decision-making authority for the entire German Church; the Vatican insisted that only individual bishops have decision-making authority in their dioceses. In a quite different case, the Symposium of Episcopal Conferences of Africa and Madagascar (SECAM), a confederation of African episcopal conferences, refused to implement the Vatican Dicastery for the Doctrine of the Faith’s 2023 declaration Fiducia Supplicans, which allowed priestly blessings for individuals in same-sex relationships. Although the Vatican accepted this decision by the African bishops, the situation raises the thorny question of whether there can be regional variations in how Church teaching is implemented, or in the pace at which it is implemented. The next pope will undoubtedly have to wrestle with these and similar ecclesiological issues.
A third consideration arising from the Synod’s recommendations is how the pope can encourage local Churches to adopt more synodal structures. The Synod’s final document includes recommendations regarding the bishop’s leadership over his diocese—including implement structures to promote transparency and accountability—and some of the most important recommendations deal with better engaging the laity in parish life. The Vatican, however, cannot force bishops and pastors to lead in a synodal style, nor can it make lay people step up and enthusiastically live out their baptismal vocation. So, what initiatives can the Vatican undertake to nudge local Churches to become more synodal? That will be an important question for the next papacy. One idea that was shared at the Synod’s second session last October was that the General Secretariat of the Synod of Bishops, the body responsible for organizing the periodic meetings of the Synod of Bishops, could have a more ongoing function, serving as a means of sharing ideas and practical examples among local Churches, and it will likewise be important for the next pope to bring this idea, or something like it, to fruition.
Developing strategies for implementing these recommendations of the Synod will require a pope with strong managerial skills, and indeed it’s clear from the reporting on the conversations among the cardinals that they recognize this is a desirable trait for the next pope. At the same time, it’s also obvious they seek a pontiff with the charisma of John Paul II or Francis. Are there papabile who possess both of these qualities? One difficulty is that it can be difficult to measure someone’s managerial acumen. And what administrative experience could compare to the responsibility of leading a worldwide Church of over a billion members? Also, any successful leader will tell you that they key is not to possess all of the traits needed for good leadership, but rather the talent for identifying and listening to the people whose strengths complement your weaknesses. Maybe the modern office of pope puts too many demands on its holder—there are too many boxes to check—and we would, unfairly, look askance if the pope was too reliant on others in fulfilling his responsibilities. Perhaps developing an even more consultative governing style, drawing more deeply on the talents of others, will be an important task for the next pope, as well.
The next pope must also be able to speak credibly about the crises facing the faithful around the world, including the impact of climate change, migration, and war, and likewise the dignity of every human person from conception to natural death. In the Schemmel Lecture I recently delivered at Clarke University, I argued that the DDF’s recent document Dignitas Infinita provides a road map for the Church’s social mission, and hopefully the next pope will see it that way, as well, and expand on its teaching. At the General Congregations, the gatherings of cardinals in the days leading up to the conclave, the cardinals have discussed the concrete situations in their home countries, with a particular focus on violent conflict, so these sorts of issues are clearly on their minds.
Finally, the cardinals will hopefully prefer a pope who will go further than Pope Francis when it comes to combatting sexual abuse in the Church. Pope Francis made key institutional reforms, most importantly the implementation of the document Vos Estis, which among other things made it possible to investigate and potentially remove a bishop involved in covering up sexual abuse. Francis, however, seemed to show a soft spot for those accused of sexual abuse who were in some way close to him, such as the Jesuit artist Marko Rupnik or the Argentine bishop Giovanni Zanchetta. Ideally, the cardinals will identify someone they believe will be consistent in combatting sexual abuse and who can lead efforts in parts of the world where the mechanisms for dealing with abuse are still being developed. This may mean that papabile who have been accused of sexual abuse or of covering it up, even if later judged innocent, such as Cardinal Gérald Lacroix of Quebec, Canada, may be considered too risky by the cardinals.
Those are what I believe to be some of the key questions the cardinals will consider as they discern who should be the next pope. Are there issues you think I missed? Share them in the comments!
In a follow up piece, hopefully published tomorrow, I’ll discuss the cardinals I think are the most credible papabile. Stay tuned!